Medicare Supplement Market Returns to Growth
Telos Actuarial publishes 16th Annual Market Projection.
With almost 14 million more individuals slated to be added to the Medicare program over the next decade, Medicare supplement insurance will continue to be a popular choice amongst beneficiaries for its consistent benefits and lack of provider networks. As the Medicare-eligible population continues to expand, the outlook for the Medicare supplement market continues to be favorable and presents significant opportunities market participants including carriers, reinsurers, agents, and product administrators.
The total number of Medicare supplement policyholders decreased annually from 2021 to 2024. However, as of year-end 2025, that number bounced back with an increase of over 240,000 policies (1.7% growth). It is anticipated that this annual growth will continue into the future. This growth coincides with the continued increases in the Medicare eligible population, uncertainty within the Medicare Advantage market, and expansion of special enrollment rules in states’ Medicare supplement markets.
While the number in force policies experienced moderate growth, Medicare supplement earned premium surged by nearly $3.4 billion (8.8%) in 2025. This component of the Medicare supplement market is expected to continue to top $50 billion by 2028 and reach nearly $66 billion by 2035.
An important component embedded within the total earned premium projection is new business premium. The estimated 2026 new business premium was $4.6 billion, its highest value since 2018. While this component is anticipated to dip slightly in 2026, it is expected to remain at high levels over the next decade.
Check out all the underlying details by downloading Telos Actuarial’s 16th Annual Market Projection today!
Need a quick refresher on the Medicare supplement product? Check out our free essentials guide available now in the Telos Actuarial Store.
The Telos Actuarial team boasts over a century of Medicare supplement experience. Therefore, no matter where your company finds itself within the Medicare supplement product journey, we can help.
Contact us to find out more - info@telosactuarial.com
